Monday, March 2, 2009

Who is the Best Pitcher in Baseball?

With baseball season just a month away and fantasy preparation in full swing, I got around to thinking about just who is the best pitcher in baseball now. It's a very difficult question to answer. You've got the Santana, Sabathia, Halladay, Webb group that has been at or near the top starters in baseball for years now. On the other hand, kids like Lincecum and Hamels are on the rise and certainly should be included in the discussion. Alright, let's look at the past 3 seasons top pitchers. Ranks are based on SNLVAR (Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added with adjustments made for the quality of each batter faced).

2008

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Johan Santana
4. Cliff Lee
5. Roy Halladay
6. Cole Hamels
7. Derek Lowe
8. Ryan Dempster
9. Brandon Webb
10. Jon Lester

2007

1. Jake Peavy
2. Tim Hudson
3. Brad Penny
4. Brandon Webb
5. John Smoltz
6. John Lackey
7. Fausto Carmona
8. Roy Halladay
9. Roy Oswalt
10. C.C. Sabathia
(12. Johan Santana)

2006

1. Johan Santana
2. Roy Oswalt
3. John Smoltz
4. Chris Carpenter
5. Bronson Arroyo
6. Brandon Webb
7. Chris Young
8. Roy Halladay
9. Carlos Zambrano
10. Derek Lowe
(13. C.C. Sabathia)

It's tough because as you can easily tell by comparing these lists, pitching is highly volatile. Halladay and Webb are actually the only pitchers to appear in the top 10 in all of the past 3 seasons (Santana's bad 2nd half in the 2007 season cost him there). I think it's fairly safe to assume that Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster had fluke seasons last year that will not be repeated. Lincecum, Hamels, and Lester are the three new appearances on the list and all are young and improving and are hard to judge against guys like Santana, Sabathia, Halladay, and Webb. I personally feel that Lincecum and Hamels are on a different level than Lester who I assume will be very good but come down to earth a little bit this season. So let's give a top 5 list for this upcoming season (a totally different and almost infinitely more important question than who has been the best pitcher in the past 2 or 3 years) a shot.

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Johan Santana
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Roy Halladay
5. Brandon Webb

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